The EPC Time Bomb: Why Your Score Could Drop Next Year?

Think your home’s EPC rating is safe? Think again.

With evolving regulations, new assessment models, and greener national targets, the UK’s EPC system is on the verge of major updates. And the result could be an unexpected downgrade to your property’s energy rating—even if nothing physically changes.

Welcome to the EPC time bomb: a ticking threat that could affect homeowners, landlords, and sellers as early as next year.

1. Why EPC Ratings May Drop in 2026 (and Beyond)

The government is under pressure to align EPC assessments with net-zero carbon goals, meaning:

• Updated SAP software (SAP 11 or equivalent)

• Revised carbon and primary energy factors

• Stricter scoring for gas heating systems

• Greater emphasis on actual performance, not assumptions

That means your current EPC might score lower under the new system, especially if:

• You rely on fossil fuel heating (like gas boilers)

• You haven’t upgraded insulation since your last EPC

• Your property lacks documentation or formal testing

👉 Even an EPC rated C today might drop to D under future rules.

2. Electric Heating Could Score Higher—Or Lower

Electric heating has historically been penalised in EPCs because of the carbon intensity of grid electricity.

However, with the UK grid now increasingly powered by renewables, the primary energy factor for electricity is being revised. This could mean:

• Heat pumps and electric heating may finally receive fair scores

• Older electric systems without controls may still suffer

👉 A system once seen as inefficient might become a smart EPC choice—depending on how it’s modelled.

3. Your EPC Age Is Working Against You

EPCs are valid for 10 years—but the software used to calculate them is frequently updated. A certificate from 2015:

• Uses outdated SAP (e.g., SAP 2009 or SAP 2012)

• Assumes higher emissions for electricity

• May lack newer upgrade records

If you haven’t updated your EPC in years, it could be wildly out of sync with today’s benchmarks—and subject to steep correction under newer rules.

4. Upcoming Legal Thresholds Could Catch You Out

Proposed changes in MEES (Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards) mean:

• Landlords may be required to meet EPC Band C by 2028

• Mortgage providers may start factoring in EPCs for lending eligibility

• Some councils may impose local EPC conditions for planning and resale

👉 If your score drops due to updated rules, you could suddenly find your property non-compliant.

5. Assumptions Will No Longer Be Enough

Current EPCs allow assessors to use standard assumptions when documentation is missing. That’s changing.

Future EPC reforms may:

• Incorporate real energy use data (via smart meters)

• Require verified test results (like airtightness or thermal imaging)

• Penalise properties with unknown or undocumented features

👉 DIY upgrades without proof? Expect to be scored down.

What Can You Do Now to Defuse the EPC Time Bomb?

✅ Update your EPC proactively—don’t wait until legislation forces it.
✅ Collect and submit full documentation for all improvements (insulation, glazing, heating systems).
✅ Consider heat pump-ready upgrades, even if you’re not switching yet.
✅ Consult an EPC professional for a forward-looking assessment based on upcoming SAP changes.
✅ Start retrofitting with Band C in mind, even if you’re at Band D or E today.

Final Thought: Your EPC Is a Moving Target

The EPC you have today may not reflect the standards of tomorrow. With tighter regulations, smarter software, and evolving green policies, thousands of properties across the UK will soon find themselves scoring lower—without doing anything wrong.

Understanding the system now means you can act early—and avoid expensive surprises later.

Want to know how future EPC changes could affect your home?
And safeguard your rating before the rules change.